Manfred comments on Putting in the Numbers - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Manfred 30 January 2014 06:41AM

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Comment author: Manfred 30 January 2014 06:10:43PM *  1 point [-]

You could if you were the robot we are constructing.

But yes, if you are a human you'll have some complicated information about how dice work. If you want to put this knowledge aside and see things from the robot's perspective, you might try replacing "die" with "object 253," "the die lands on side 1" with "event 759," and so on.

Comment author: christopherj 30 January 2014 11:23:37PM 0 points [-]

But words have meaning -- you shouldn't neglect that a "die" is a "3-dimensional object with n sides, usually designed such that each has equal probability of ending up when rolled". My objection would vanish if instead of a die it were a "random number generator returning integers from 1 to 4 with an average of 3"

In this case, the generator has an unknown distribution biased in some way toward the higher numbers. This is a problem because it is highly unlikely that my estimate of the probabilities matches the actual probabilities, and furthermore someone else might know the actual probabilities and be able to win bets against me.