V_V comments on Another Critique of Effective Altruism - Less Wrong
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Is this MIRI official position? Because, AFAIK that estimate was never retracted.
Anyway, the problem doesn't seem to be much with the exact numbers, but with the process: what she did was essentially a travesty of a Fermi estimate, where she pulled numbers of out thin air and multiplied them together to get a self-serving result.
This person is "Executive Director and Cofounder" of CFAR. Is this what they teach for $1,000 a day? How to fool yourself by performing a mental ritual with made up numbers?
I don't know what Anna's current view is. (Edit: Anna has now given it.)
In general, there aren't such things as "MIRI official positions," there are just individual persons' opinions at a given time. Asking for MIRI's official position on a research question is like asking for CSAIL's official opinion on AGI timelines. If there are "MIRI official positions," I guess they'd be board-approved policies like our whistleblower policy or something.
Thanks for the answer