AnnaSalamon comments on Another Critique of Effective Altruism - Less Wrong

19 Post author: jsteinhardt 05 January 2014 09:51AM

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Comment author: lukeprog 09 January 2014 03:55:40AM 3 points [-]

Pulling this number out of the video and presenting it by itself, as Kruel does, leaves out important context, such as Anna's statement "Don't trust this calculation too much. [There are] many simplifications and estimated figures. But [then] if the issue might be high stakes, recalculate more carefully." (E.g. after purchasing more information.)

However, Anna next says:

I've talked about [this estimate] with a lot of people and the bargain seems robust. Maybe you go for a soft takeoff scenario, [then the estimate] comes out maybe an order of magnitude lower. But it still comes out [as] unprecedentedly much goodness that you can purchase for a little bit of money or time.

And that is something I definitely disagree with. I don't think the estimate is anywhere near that robust.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 09 January 2014 07:28:07PM 7 points [-]

I agree with Luke's comment; compared to my views in 2009, the issue now seems more complicated to me; my estimate of impact form donation re: AI risk is lower (though still high); and I would not say that a particular calculation is robust.

Comment author: satt 11 January 2014 12:16:49PM 2 points [-]

my estimate of impact form donation re: AI risk is lower (though still high)

Out of curiosity, what's your current estimate? I recognize it'll be rough, but even e.g. "more likely than not between $1 and $50 per life saved" would be interesting.