Lumifer comments on Things I Wish They'd Taught Me When I Was Younger: Why Money Is Awesome - Less Wrong

32 Post author: ChrisHallquist 16 January 2014 07:27AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 05:16:06PM 6 points [-]

I'm fairly sure I'm the only 24-year-old grad-student with a Roth IRA topped-up for 2012-2014, and this is because when I got extra money, it went into the retirement account rather than towards consumption, or even towards extra charity.

This is true for me as well (I'm slightly older), but I also have some sources of income that I expect most graduate students don't.

If we want to talk about how money is awesome, we should also be talking about how to make sure that people who aren't like us actually get some of it. I mean it: no amount of Tumblry "checking our privilege" is actually going to make the people who work in, say, our favorite food trucks or hole-in-the-wall falafel joints, anywhere near as wealthy as us. We'll need to actually exercise our intelligence for that.

But one of the main reasons why money is awesome is because spending money is rivalrous. My primary expensive hobby is art collecting. I have the number of original paintings I have because I put up more money than the other people bidding on them, and if everyone had more money, then the primary effect would be that the prices increase.

When you say we need to exercise our intelligence, let me talk about Franklin Barbecue in Austin. It's quite possibly the best barbecue in the US, and they've sold out of brisket every day that they've been open. Officially, it opens at 11 AM, but generally people recommend that you show up at ~8 AM to wait in line.

To the economist in me, this is a terrible setup. They could spend their customers' extra money; they can't spend their customers' wasted time. They should auction off the barbecue, which will raise prices and lower wait times. But it'll also get rid of the communal experience of waiting in line, and less of their customers will be students and more of them will be engineers. The way to get more money to 'food trucks' is to embrace the inequality that makes engineers that will bid on barbecue.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 05:51:56PM *  5 points [-]

It's quite possibly the best barbecue in the US

Them are fightin' words, y'know... :-D

To the economist in me, this is a terrible setup.

It's more complicated than it looks

Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 06:36:22PM *  0 points [-]

Them are fightin' words, y'know... :-D

I'm aware, hence the hedging. I am not a food critic, and am relying on the judgments of food critics.

It's more complicated than it looks

Yes, people rage at high prices, especially when demand jumps and supply falls. And I'm sure that the status threat of the price rising or being priced out makes it worse than just the scarcity.

But the right answer probably isn't lotteries. People are unhappier when others receive rewards for merit than they are when others receive rewards because of luck. The right answer almost certainly is efficiency.

Comment author: Error 16 January 2014 06:56:52PM 1 point [-]

But the right answer probably isn't lotteries. People are unhappier when others receive rewards for merit than they are when others receive rewards because of luck.

This confuses me. Surely if people are made less unhappy by a luck-based distribution, that's an argument in favor of a luck-based distribution?

I'm not sure if you typed that backwards or not. I can think of plausible reasons for people to hate both luck and merit distributions.

Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 06:59:50PM 2 points [-]

Surely if people are made less unhappy by a luck-based distribution, that's an argument in favor of a luck-based distribution?

I view it as an argument against the preferences of people.

Comment author: Error 16 January 2014 10:03:10PM 0 points [-]

So you did mean it as written. I'd kind of like to see the studies, if you have a link. I don't find it surprising, exactly, but it's not a question I'd considered before, and it seems like it would be amusing misanthropy fuel.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 17 January 2014 02:30:12PM *  5 points [-]

Maybe people don't actually believe in merit, in near mode. Maybe they think they do, but they are really thinking about status.

Distributions based on merit (that we don't recognize instinctively) simply seem unfair. Distributions based on tranparent luck seem like everyone at least had a fair chance.

Maybe the real problem with money is that it usually belongs to people we personally don't know, so we don't know what exactly they did and why exactly should we respect them, so it feels like they really don't deserve the money. And the rest is rationalization.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 22 January 2014 04:48:33AM 1 point [-]

Maybe people don't actually believe in merit, in near mode. Maybe they think they do, but they are really thinking about status.

This is made worse by money anti-correlating with status when all other variables are controlled for, i.e., given two otherwise comparable jobs, the lower status one will pay more.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 06:46:58PM 0 points [-]

But the right answer probably isn't lotteries.

The right answer to which problem exactly? Temporary shortages of high-status goods aren't exactly a burning issue that really needs to be solved externally.

Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 06:58:56PM 2 points [-]

The right answer to which problem exactly?

Locally, the Barbecue Distribution Problem. Globally, the Efficiency Problem. Imagine Franklin Barbecue as one of the broken windows of inefficiency; yes, it only wastes tens of years per year, and they're probably only losing tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue per year. But efficient markets in barbecue help make efficient markets in other things more reasonable.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 07:15:39PM *  3 points [-]

Locally, the Barbecue Distribution Problem.

I would assume that people who run the barbecue are (1) Aware of the problem; (2) Have incentives to deal with it; and (3) Are not entirely stupid. Given this I am not sure why do you think that what they are doing now is not "the right answer". For example, raising prices might be good in the short term but turn out to be a very bad idea in the medium term.

Globally, the Efficiency Problem.

What is that problem and, again, what does it have to do with temporary shortages of high-status goods? And I'm less than convinced that the broken-windows theory applies to global efficiency. In any case, if so, wouldn't you want to start with government, instead? X-/

To give a trivial example, creating such a temporary shortage is popular marketing trick (if the company can pull it off, of course).

Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 07:58:56PM *  4 points [-]

I would assume that people who run the barbecue are (1) Aware of the problem; (2) Have incentives to deal with it; and (3) Are not entirely stupid. Given this I am not sure why do you think that what they are doing now is not "the right answer".

I think that (3) is not a good assumption to make, and I wouldn't word it that way. I know lots of artists who have never heard of sealed second-bid auctions (also known as Vickrey auctions), despite those auctions being the optimal way to sell artwork or commission slots online. Are they entirely stupid? No; they just have limited knowledge. Similarly, the barbecue auction problem has a potentially nontrivial complication: there are 5 different varieties of meat sold by the pound (and each variety of meat can either go into by-the-pound orders or sandwich or plate orders), and many people would like either their entire order, or none of their order. How do you find the optimal set of orders to fulfill, and what price do you charge people for those orders, in a way that doesn't skew their bidding incentives?

It's a solvable problem, of course, but it's the sort of problem you'd want to hand off to an optimization guy to solve for you, especially if your core competency is barbecuing meat.

For example, raising prices might be good in the short term but turn out to be a very bad idea in the medium term.

It might- it's possible that once people could get it by paying more money, instead of more time, it would lose some of the specialness and people would go there less. But it's not clear to me that they would ever reach the point where they don't sell out of meat, and maybe they have to be open for dinner too instead of just lunch.

But it could also be that the steady-state long-term price of their brisket is $40 a pound, and they've been selling it at $17, and that it is a fantastic thing over the medium term.

(Also, I feel I should mention, since it may not have been obvious: they do allow pre-orders, if you're willing to pre-order by about a month. The amount of pre-orders they allow is obviously capped, so that there's still BBQ available day-of. Auctioning off meat should start as a small percentage of their total quantity moved as a test, and then expanded or contracted as desired. So long as some of it is available by waiting, it is unlikely to lose the popularity.)

What is that problem and, again, what does it have to do with temporary shortages of high-status goods?

Basically, not enough people thinking like economists.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 08:08:32PM *  2 points [-]

It's a solvable problem

Well, then, I see an excellent opportunity for you. You mentioned that they might be "losing tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue per year" -- surely if you go talk to them and point it out, they'll be glad to pay you some of that surplus that they are leaving on the table.

In the best case you'll earn a fair chunk of money and make friends in the BBQ business. In the worst case you'll learn a valuable lesson why theoretical economics doesn't apply to real life too well :-)

Basically, not enough people thinking like economists.

That's complicated. I understand what you are trying to say, but "thinking like an economist" is not an unalloyed good. For example, consider that economics (especially macro) is really bad at forecasting.

Comment author: Vaniver 16 January 2014 08:20:05PM 7 points [-]

Well, then, I see an excellent opportunity for you.

This is, in fact, my plan.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 08:26:20PM 3 points [-]

Cool!

Do report on success.

Comment author: Strange7 23 January 2014 12:17:09AM 1 point [-]

If the availability of their product to low-income people is a priority for the current owner, it might be possible to maintain that while raising cash prices by offering menial temp work (such as dishwashing) in exchange for store credit. This is a well-known strategy among restaurants looking to settle accounts with someone who has already eaten but proves unable to pay; the innovative part would be offering a more favorable rate of exchange, and work first for food later.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 16 January 2014 06:31:13PM 0 points [-]

thanks for the link. I wonder if it would be feasible for companies to run lotteries for highly demanded goods.

Comment author: Lumifer 16 January 2014 06:43:32PM 1 point [-]

to run lotteries for highly demanded goods

In our economy most shortages are temporary -- the market takes care of them.

But lotteries for things in very limited supply certainly exist, see e.g. this