if I am proved correct most of the potential counter-parties to that deal will be first against the metaphorical wall, and thus I do not get paid either way.

A fair point. However if you think that scenario is likely I would recommend to buy ammo and beans and not worry about high-tech things like AI.

for most of the history of capitalism finance and banking is where mediocre intellects with high conscientiousness scores went to earn a respectable boring living in a respectable boring job.

That is not true at all. It is so for accountants and tellers, but it is true for them in our days just as well. People who owned and managed high-level financial and banking institutions always had high risk and, if successful, high profits. Think about financing trading ships half across the world, financing wars and shaky monarchies...

The big banking houses did not rise through efforts of people with "mediocre intellects [and] high conscientiousness scores".