= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Pablo_Stafforini comments on Things I Wish They'd Taught Me When I Was Younger: Why Money Is Awesome - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (234)
Personally, I don't expect much from the data. From reading through scores of papers comparing minute differences in spacing and getting contradictory results and small improvements, I get the impression that once you've moved from massed to spacing (almost any kind of spacing), you've gotten the overwhelming majority of the benefits, and the rest is basically frippery which needs a lot of domain expertise to improve upon. I understand Peter hasn't looked at the Mnemosyne data much either because it didn't indicate to him that the fancier SuperMemo algorithms were much help.
But I could be wrong. I haven't worked with the Mnemosyne data very much beyond looking at correlating scores with hour of day and day of week; I've been waiting for the data to import to SQL to work with the whole dataset.
(So far I'm up to 81%... I'm hopeful that the 1TB SSD I just ordered will help speed things up a lot, and then I can host the SQL on Amazon S3 or something for anyone who is interested; a quick estimate is that it'll cost me ~$5-10 a month or $60-120 a year to host, but I figure that I can solicit some donations to help cover it. If nothing else, it'll save Peter a lot of time and effort in uploading the raw logs for each person who asks him. EDIT: the SSD sped things up even more than I expected: processing time goes from months to ~25 hours. So I deleted it and am fetching a fresher dataset to process & distribute.)
What do you think are the prospects of a SRS that uses a forgetting curve specific to the individual, by relying on past performance? Has this been tried or considered?
You can already modify the forgetting curve yourself in most SRS based on your needs via a constant. Unless an automatic algorithm goes with the personal best past performance, I expect a continuous decay of performance using such an algorithm for most individuals. I think Anki already automatically modifies intervals of individual cards based on your past performance i.e. the experienced difficulty and instances of forgetting, for example. New cards are not affected by past performance, as far as I know.
You need to specify which parts are being modified by an SRS system: each card has an easiness parameter and that will be continuously modified based your performance, but I don't think existing SRS systems like Anki or Mnemosyne will modify other parts of the curve like the exponent. For example, SM2's algorithm runs in part based on updating the easiness as
EF+(0.1-(5-q)*(0.08+(5-q)*0.02))- the EF will be progressively updated, but the formula itself never changes even if 0.1 is not ideal and 0.15 would be better or something.