Assume total heritability, random mating, additive genetics, and a single 50% truncation event. In the first generation, the right tail becomes 4x larger as a proportion of the population, but it gets smaller in equilibrium. The new mean is 0.8 standard deviations above the old mean. The new standard deviation is 0.6 times the old one. When it reaches equilibrium and becomes a Gaussian with those parameters, the crossover where the old population had a thicker tail than the new is about two standard deviations. At three standard deviations, the new distribution is only 1/10 of the old distribution. But I don't know how much time it takes to get there.
Thank you, I'm pretty surprised by that result. Two questions: does assortive mating merely slow down that process? And is there any way to increase the both the average and the standard deviation?
A long blog post explains why the author, a feminist, is not comfortable with the rationalist community despite thinking it is "super cool and interesting". It's directed specifically at Yvain, but it's probably general enough to be of some interest here.
http://apophemi.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/why-im-not-on-the-rationalist-masterlist/
I'm not sure if I can summarize this fairly but the main thrust seems to be that we are overly willing to entertain offensive/taboo/hurtful ideas and this drives off many types of people. Here's a quote:
The author perceives a link between LW type open discourse and danger to minority groups. I'm not sure whether that's true or not. Take race. Many LWers are willing to entertain ideas about the existence and possible importance of average group differences in psychological traits. So, maybe LWers are racists. But they're racists who continually obsess over optimizing their philanthropic contributions to African charities. So, maybe not racists in a dangerous way?
An overly rosy view, perhaps, and I don't want to deny the reality of the blogger's experience. Clearly, the person is intelligent and attracted to some aspects of LW discourse while turned off by other aspects.