Cyan comments on Planning Fallacy - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 September 2007 07:06AM

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Comment author: RobinZ 27 November 2009 09:01:32PM 1 point [-]

They weren't asked if they'd complete the task, they were asked when.

Comment author: Cyan 28 November 2009 12:10:39AM *  4 points [-]

If you ascribe less than 99% probability to the proposition that you will ever finish a given task, then there is no time t such that Pr(task completed by t) = 0.99.