Sebastian_Hagen comments on Planning Fallacy - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 September 2007 07:06AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 27 November 2009 07:33:41PM *  1 point [-]

Specifically, the researchers asked for estimated times by which the students thought it was 50%, 75%, and 99% probable their personal projects would be done.

99%? How am I supposed to answer if I assign less than 99% probability to me actually completing the task? That isn't even particularly pessimistic given reasonable priorities.

ETA after surprising vote: Really an actual answer would be appreciated. How am I supposed to understand that question? Or is it somehow shame-worthy to ask even when I am so entirely distanced from those individuals expected to give such an estimate to an actual superior?

Comment author: Sebastian_Hagen 28 November 2009 12:20:17AM *  2 points [-]

99%? How am I supposed to answer if I assign less than 99% probability to me actually completing the task?

Not with a finite number, obviously. "I'm not 0.99 sure I'll ever get this done", "your question makes an incorrect assumption", "Mu" all seem like reasonable replies. "∞" will make some people cringe, but should also get the point across.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 November 2009 05:03:00AM *  0 points [-]

Thankyou. I wasn't familiar with the 'Mu' word. English or not I shall put it to good use.

"∞" will make some people cringe, but should also get the point across.

Agree on both counts. Especially the cringing part.

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