Ivan_Tishchenko comments on Planning Fallacy - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 September 2007 07:06AM

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Comment author: Ivan_Tishchenko 27 October 2015 10:51:18PM 0 points [-]

But experiment has shown that the more detailed subjects' visualization, the more optimistic (and less accurate) they become.

I'm working in software engineering, and I have often seen the opposite. You ask a guy, hey how long do you think you'll spend on this task? And they say, 150 hours. Now, you say, let's break it down into specific actions, and estimate them. And often it happens that the result is twice as large as original rough estimate.