Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Planning Fallacy - Less Wrong

41 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 September 2007 07:06AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (43)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 17 September 2007 03:56:23PM 1 point [-]

> Both groups finished an average of 3 days before Christmas.

Is this true in general? Is there really no difference between time taken on an optimistic schedule and a realistic one? I've found that projects with long dealines tend to "slip" a bit, no matter how long the deadline is.

My impression from reading the literature so far is that project estimates are highly informative, that is, students which estimated earlier completion times did tend to finish earlier. However, manipulations which resulted in earlier estimates, such as asking students to visualize their plans in detail, did not affect completion time; nor did manipulations which led to more realistic estimates.

That's my impression from reading so far, but I also have a dim recollection of having heard different results from elsewhere (a case where manipulating estimates did affect completion times).

There may also be a difference between individual and bureaucratic projects, or manipulating an external deadline versus manipulating the estimate.