Venkman comments on Planning Fallacy - Less Wrong
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I was reading this inside view / outside view and before I got to the explanation of what it means, i had a completely different meaning forming in my head. So... here's my idea.
How about estimating based on how others perform? What I mean is, instead of thinking how long you'd take to finish that paper (or whatever), try to thinking how long would it take your classmate, your friend, someone else.
Do you think this could give better estimates?