AFAIK nobody had a lot of difficulty understanding UDT, or thought that the UDT approach would have trouble with the kind of problem that you are describing in this sequence.

For what it's worth, I had a similar impression before, but now I suspect that either Eliezer doesn't understand how UDT deals with that problem, or he has some objection that I don't understand. That may or may not have something to do with his insistence on using causal models, which I also don't understand.