wallowinmaya comments on Literature-review on cognitive effects of modafinil (my bachelor thesis) - Less Wrong
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Well, meta-analyses certainly are an area of interest to me, and I was disappointed in 2012 by "Cognition Enhancement by Modafinil: A Meta-Analysis" (Kelley et al 20120) which used only 3 studies, and so was not very informative. A new meta-analysis would be great. But... I read quickly through it, and I saw no meta-analysis. Just a literature review. What's with the post title?
Nitpick: I really hate this use of 'significantly' and I ban it from my own writing. Is this referring to effect sizes or p-values?
Eh. Absence of improvement != damage. Randal 2004 didn't find a statistically-significant decrease (and it's not clear whether it should, given that it reports 25 datasets for 3 groups, so hunting for decreases incurs worries about multiplicity). And I have to point out, as far as Müller et al 2012 goes, the decrease didn't reach p<0.05 (just 0.053), and if you're willing to accept just trending, then you should also be accepting the increase in the GEFT/Group Embedded Figures Task (p=0.08).
How important are these observations...? Well, as you found out, it can be hard to compare or meta-analyze psychology studies since studies may cover the same topic but use different sets of tests, frustrating the most obvious approach 'just univariate meta-analyze everything!'
Hah.
You're right. I don't remember why I wrote "meta-analysis". (Probably because it sounds fancy and smart). I updated the title.
p-values.
True.
No. In Randall et al. (2004) participants in the 200 mg modafinil condition made significantly more errors (p<0,05) in the Intra/Extradimensional Set Shift task than participants in the placebo and the 100 mg modafinil condition. (The 200 mg group made on average around 27 errors. The 100 mg group around 14. The control group around 17 errors.)
Actually, you linked to a different study. The results can be found in the complete study I linked to. I can upload it if you want to see it yourself.
Every single graphic in this whole thing is reprinted without permission, to tell the truth. (Is this a problem?)