wallowinmaya comments on Literature-review on cognitive effects of modafinil (my bachelor thesis) - Less Wrong

33 Post author: wallowinmaya 08 January 2014 07:23PM

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Comment author: gwern 10 January 2014 03:00:11AM 13 points [-]

Meta-analysis on cognitive effects of modafinil (my bachelor thesis)

Well, meta-analyses certainly are an area of interest to me, and I was disappointed in 2012 by "Cognition Enhancement by Modafinil: A Meta-Analysis" (Kelley et al 20120) which used only 3 studies, and so was not very informative. A new meta-analysis would be great. But... I read quickly through it, and I saw no meta-analysis. Just a literature review. What's with the post title?

Modafinil significantly improved performance in 26 out of 102 cognitive tests, but significantly decreased performance in 3 cognitive tests.

Nitpick: I really hate this use of 'significantly' and I ban it from my own writing. Is this referring to effect sizes or p-values?

Notably, modafinil appears to have detrimental effects on mental flexibility. Although 4 studies employed the Intra/Extradimensional Set Shift task (ID/ED), no performance improvements could be detected. Performance was even reduced in a study by Randall et al. (2004). Furthermore, Müller et al. (2012) found that subjects on modafinil had lower flexibility scores in the Abbreviated Torrance task for adults.

Eh. Absence of improvement != damage. Randal 2004 didn't find a statistically-significant decrease (and it's not clear whether it should, given that it reports 25 datasets for 3 groups, so hunting for decreases incurs worries about multiplicity). And I have to point out, as far as Müller et al 2012 goes, the decrease didn't reach p<0.05 (just 0.053), and if you're willing to accept just trending, then you should also be accepting the increase in the GEFT/Group Embedded Figures Task (p=0.08).

How important are these observations...? Well, as you found out, it can be hard to compare or meta-analyze psychology studies since studies may cover the same topic but use different sets of tests, frustrating the most obvious approach 'just univariate meta-analyze everything!'

Reprinted from Baranski et al. (2004) without permission.

Hah.

Comment author: wallowinmaya 10 January 2014 07:14:24PM *  5 points [-]

But... I read quickly through it, and I saw no meta-analysis. Just a literature review. What's with the post title?

You're right. I don't remember why I wrote "meta-analysis". (Probably because it sounds fancy and smart). I updated the title.

Is this referring to effect sizes or p-values?

p-values.

Eh. Absence of improvement != damage.

True.

...Randal 2004 didn't find a statistically-significant decrease...

No. In Randall et al. (2004) participants in the 200 mg modafinil condition made significantly more errors (p<0,05) in the Intra/Extradimensional Set Shift task than participants in the placebo and the 100 mg modafinil condition. (The 200 mg group made on average around 27 errors. The 100 mg group around 14. The control group around 17 errors.)

Actually, you linked to a different study. The results can be found in the complete study I linked to. I can upload it if you want to see it yourself.

Reprinted from Baranski et al. (2004) without permission.

Every single graphic in this whole thing is reprinted without permission, to tell the truth. (Is this a problem?)