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Daniel_Burfoot comments on I Will Pay $500 To Anyone Who Can Convince Me To Cancel My Cryonics Subscription - Less Wrong
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How low would your estimate have to get before you canceled your subscription? I might try to convince you by writing down something like:
P(CW) = P(CW | CTA) * P(CTA)
Where CW = "cryonics working for you" and CTA = "continued technological advancement in the historical short term", and arguing that your estimate of P(CTA) is probably much too high. Of course, this would only reduce your overall estimate by 10x at most, so if you still value cryonics at P=0.03 instead of P=0.3, it wouldn't matter.