Background:
On the most recent LessWrong readership survey, I assigned a probability of 0.30 on the cryonics question. I had previously been persuaded to sign up for cryonics by reading the sequences, but this thread and particularly this comment lowered my estimate of the chances of cryonics working considerably. Also relevant from the same thread was ciphergoth's comment:
By and large cryonics critics don't make clear exactly what part of the cryonics argument they mean to target, so it's hard to say exactly whether it covers an area of their expertise, but it's at least plausible to read them as asserting that cryopreserved people are information-theoretically dead, which is not guesswork about future technology and would fall under their area of expertise.
Based on this, I think there's a substantial chance that there's information out there that would convince me that the folks who dismiss cryonics as pseudoscience are essentially correct, that the right answer to the survey question was epsilon. I've seen what seem like convincing objections to cryonics, and it seems possible that an expanded version of those arguments, with full references and replies to pro-cryonics arguments, would convince me. Or someone could just go to the trouble of showing that a large majority of cryobiologists really do think cryopreserved people are information-theoretically dead.
However, it's not clear to me how well worth my time it is to seek out such information. It seems coming up with decisive information would be hard, especially since e.g. ciphergoth has put a lot of energy into trying to figure out what the experts think about cryonics and come away without a clear answer. And part of the reason I signed up for cryonics in the first place is because it doesn't cost me much: the largest component is the life insurance for funding, only $50 / month.
So I've decided to put a bounty on being persuaded to cancel my cryonics subscription. If no one succeeds in convincing me, it costs me nothing, and if someone does succeed in convincing me the cost is less than the cost of being signed up for cryonics for a year. And yes, I'm aware that providing one-sided financial incentives like this requires me to take the fact that I've done this into account when evaluating anti-cryonics arguments, and apply extra scrutiny to them.
Note that there are several issues that ultimately go in to whether you should sign up for cryonics (the neuroscience / evaluation of current technology, estimate of the probability of a "good" future, various philosophical issues), I anticipate the greatest chance of being persuaded from scientific arguments. In particular, I find questions about personal identity and consciousness of uploads made from preserved brains confusing, but think there are very few people in the world, if any, who are likely to have much chance of getting me un-confused about those issues. The offer is blind to the exact nature of the arguments given, but I mostly foresee being persuaded by the neuroscience arguments.
And of course, I'm happy to listen to people tell me why the anti-cryonics arguments are wrong and I should stay signed up for cryonics. There's just no prize for doing so.
This post inspired me to quickly do this calculation. I did not know what the answer would be when I started. It could convince you in either direction really, depending on your level of self/altruism balance and probability estimate.
Cost of neuro-suspension cryonics > $20,000
Cost of saving a single life via effective altruism, with high certainty < $5,000
Let's say you value a good outcome with a mostly-immortal life at X stranger's regular-span lives.
Let "C" represent the threshold of certainty that signing up for cryonics causes that good outcome.
C*X / $20,000 > 1 / $5,000
C > 4/x
Conclusion: with estimates biased towards the cryonics side of the equation... in order to sign up your minimum certainty that it will work as expected must be four divided by the number of strangers you would sacrifice your immortality for.
If you value immortality at the cost of 4 strangers, you should sign up for cryonics instead of E.A. only if you are 100% certain it will work.
If you value immortallity at the cost of 400 strangers, you should sign of for cryonics instead of E.A. only if you are more than 1% certain it will work.
(^ Really what is happening here is that at the cost of 4 strangers you are taking a gamble on a 1% chance..but it amounts to the same thing if you shut up and multiply)
The numbers for whole-body suspension will be rather different.
This sort of utilitarian calculation should be done with something like QALYs, not lives. If the best charities extend life at $150 per QALY, and a $20,000 neuro-suspension extends life by a risk-adjusted 200 QALYs, then purchasing cryonics for yourself would be altruistically utilitarian.