James_Miller comments on AALWA: Ask any LessWronger anything - Less Wrong
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Ask me anything. I'm the author of Singularity Rising.
What, if anything, do you think a lesswrong regular who's read the sequences and all/most of MIRI's non-technical publications will get out of your book?
Along with the views of EY (which such readers would already know) I present the singularity views of Robin Hanson and Ray Kurzweil, and discuss the intelligence enhancing potential of brain training, smart drugs, and eugenics. My thesis is that there are so many possible paths to super-human intelligence and such incredible military and economic benefits to develop super-human intelligence that unless we destroy our high-tech civilization we will almost certainly develop it.
How much time did it take you to write the singularity book? How much money has it brought you?
Same question about your microeconomics textbook. Also, what motivated you to write it given that there must be about 2^512 existing ones on the market?
Hard to say about the time because I worked on both books while also doing other projects. I suspect I could have done the Singularity book in about 1.5 years of full time effort. I don't have a good estimate for the textbook. Alas, I have lost money on the singularity book because the advance wasn't all that big, and I had personal expenses such as hiring a research assistant and paying a publicist. The textbook had a decent advance, still I probably earned roughly minimum wage for it. Surprisingly, I've done fairly well with my first book, Game Theory at Work, in part because of translation rights. With Game Theory at Work I've probably earned several times the minimum wage. Of course, I'm a professor and part of my salary from my college is to write, and I'm not including this.
I wanted to write a free market microeconomics textbook, and there are very few of these. I was recruited to write the textbook by the people who published Game Theory at Work. Had the textbook done very well, I could have made a huge amount of money (roughly equal to my salary as a professor) indefinitely. Alas, this didn't happen but the odds of it happening were well under 50%. Since teaching microeconomics is a big part of my job as a college professor, there was a large overlap between writing the textbook and becoming a better teacher. My textbook publisher sent all of my chapters to other teachers of microeconomics to get their feedback, and so I basically got a vast amount of feedback from experts on how I teach microeconomics.
Why did you decide to run for Massachusetts State Senate in 2004? Did you ever think you had a chance of winning?
No. I ran as a Republican in one of the most Democratic districts in Massachusetts, my opponent was the second most powerful person in the Massachusetts State Senate, and even Republicans in my district had a high opinion of him.
Why did you run?
I wanted to get more involved in local Republican politics and no one was running in the district and it was suggested that I run. It turned out to be a good decision as I had a lot of fun debating my opponent and going to political events. Since winning wasn't an option, it was even mostly stress free.
I have a political question/proposition I have been pondering, and you, an intelligent semi-involved Massachusetts Republican, are precisely the kind of person who could answer it usefully. May I ask it to you in a private message?
Yes
Haven't read your book so not sure if you have already answered this.
what is your assessment of miri's current opinion that increasing the global economic growth rate is a source of existential risk?
How much risk is increased for what increase in growth?
Are there safe paths? (Maybe catch up growth in india and china is safe??)
Greater economic growth means more money for AI research from companies and governments and if you think that AI will probably go wrong then this is a source of trouble. But there are benefits as well including increased charitable contributions for organizations that reduce existential risk and better educational systems in India and China which might produce people who end up helping MIRI. Overall, I'm not sure how this nets out.
Catch up growth is not necessarily safe because it will increase the demand for products that use AI and so increase the amount of resources companies such as Google devote to AI.
The only safe path is someone developing a mathematically sound theory of friendly AI, but this will be easier if we get (probably via China) intelligence enhancement with eugenics.
Did you see any shifts in opinion (even in a small audience) following on your book?
Not really. Someone (I forgot who) wrote that I helped them see the race to create AI as a potential existential risk. I promoted the book on numerous radio shows and I hope I convinced at least a few people to do further research and perhaps donate money to MIRI, but this is just a hope.
Why do you think that it is so hard to get through to people?
Not only you, but others involved in this, and myself, have all found that intelligent people will listen and even understand what you are telling them -- I probe for inferential gaps, and if they exist they are not obvious.
Yet almost no one gets on board with the MIRI/FHI program.
Why?
I have thought a lot about this. Possible reasons: most humans don't care about the far future or people who are not yet born, most things that seem absurd are absurd and are not worth investigating and the singularity certainly superficially seems absurd, the vast majority is right and you and I are incorrect to worry about a singularity, it's impossible for people to imagine an intelligence AI that doesn't have human-like emotions, the Fermi paradox implies that civilizations such as ours are not going to be able to rationally think about the far future, and an ultra-AI would be a god and so is disallowed by most peoples' religious beliefs.
Your question is related to why so few signup for cryonics.
I don't know about anyone else, but I find it hard to believe that provable Friendliness is possible.
On the other hand, I think high-probability Friendliness might be possible.
I agree with you that a lot of people think that way, but I have spoken to quite a few smart people who understand all the points -- I probe to figure out if there are any major inferential gaps -- and they still don't get on the bandwagon.
Another point is simply that we cannot all devote time to all important things; they simply choose not to prioritize this.
Do you think "The Singularity" is a useful concept, or would it be better to discuss the constituent issues separately?
Yes it is useful. I define the singularity as a threshold of time at which machine intelligence or increases in human intelligence radically transform society. As similar incentives and technologies are pushing us towards this, it's useful to lump them together with a single term.