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Lumifer comments on AALWA: Ask any LessWronger anything - Less Wrong
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Median estimate for when they'll start working on a serious code project (i.e., not just toy code to illustrate theorems) is 2017.
This will not necessarily be development of friendly AI -- maybe a component of friendly AI, maybe something else. (I have no strong estimates for what that other thing would be, but just as an example--a simulated-world sandbox).
Everything I say above (and elsewhere), is my opinion, not MIRIs. Median estimate for when they'll start working on friendly AI, if they get started with that before the Singularity, and if their direction doesn't shift away from their apparent current long-term plans to do so: 2025.
What are the error bars around these estimates?
The first estimate: 50% probability between 2015 and 2020.
The second estimate: 50% probability between 2020 and 2035. (again, taking into account all the conditioning factors).
Um.
The distribution is asymmetric for obvious reasons. The probability for 2014 is pretty close to zero. This means that there is a 50% probability that a serious code project will start after 2020.
This is inconsistent with 2017 being a median estimate.
Unless he thinks it's very unlikely the project will start between 2017 and 2020 for some reason.
Good point. I'll have to re-think that estimate and improve it.