The first estimate: 50% probability between 2015 and 2020.
The second estimate: 50% probability between 2020 and 2035. (again, taking into account all the conditioning factors).
Um.
2017
50% probability between 2015 and 2020.
The distribution is asymmetric for obvious reasons. The probability for 2014 is pretty close to zero. This means that there is a 50% probability that a serious code project will start after 2020.
This is inconsistent with 2017 being a median estimate.
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