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Lumifer comments on AALWA: Ask any LessWronger anything - Less Wrong
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Um.
The distribution is asymmetric for obvious reasons. The probability for 2014 is pretty close to zero. This means that there is a 50% probability that a serious code project will start after 2020.
This is inconsistent with 2017 being a median estimate.
Unless he thinks it's very unlikely the project will start between 2017 and 2020 for some reason.
Good point. I'll have to re-think that estimate and improve it.