Median estimate for when they'll start working on a serious code project (i.e., not just toy code to illustrate theorems) is 2017.

This will not necessarily be development of friendly AI -- maybe a component of friendly AI, maybe something else. (I have no strong estimates for what that other thing would be, but just as an example--a simulated-world sandbox).

Everything I say above (and elsewhere), is my opinion, not MIRIs. Median estimate for when they'll start working on friendly AI, if they get started with that before the Singularity, and if their direction doesn't shift away from their apparent current long-term plans to do so: 2025.