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Good_Burning_Plastic comments on Conjunction Fallacy - Less Wrong
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Is this really a fallacy? In the USSR and Poland case, we might take the probability space in (1) to exclude an invasion of Poland, and the space in (2) to include one. Then the claims are perfectly consistent, since the probability space changes; people just reason with respect to "stereotypical" alternatives.
Okay, Eliezer should add a boldfaced note at the bottom of this post asking people not to comment until they've read the followup.
The answers provided there seem not to be relevant to the objection I raised.