Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Conjunction Fallacy - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 September 2007 01:54AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 September 2007 10:57:57PM 1 point [-]

Sebastian, I thought of including that as a disclaimer, and decided against it because I figured y'all were capable of working that part out by yourselves. Unless both figures are equal to 0, I think it is rather improbable that in a set of 10 jazz players, they are all accountants.

The probability of P(A&B) should always be strictly less than P(B), since just as infinity is not an integer, 1.0 is not a probability, and this includes the probability P(A|B). However you may drop the remainder if it is below the precision of your arithmetic.