Craig comments on Conjunction Fallacy - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 September 2007 01:54AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (46)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Craig 07 February 2009 09:43:31PM 0 points [-]

The case of the die rolled 20 times nad trying to determine which sequecne is more likely is not one covered in most basic statistics courses. Yes you can apply the rule of statistics and get the right answer, but knowing the rules and being able to apply them are different things. Otherwise we could give people Euclids postulates one day and expect them to know all of geometry. I see a lot of people astonished by peoples answers, but how many of you could correctly determine the exact probability of each of the sequences appearing?