Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Conjunction Controversy (Or, How They Nail It Down) - Less Wrong

26 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 September 2007 02:41AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 September 2007 05:37:58PM 0 points [-]

J Thomas, I would guess that in real life your method would work well in this specific case, because I'm guessing the prior odds are more extreme than the likelihoods. But you're correct that, in general, it is equally fallacious to ignore evidence as to ignore priors. :)