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private_messaging comments on 2013 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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I agree. But I don't think they can be that strongly dependant (not even close). How could they be?
There's two sorts of uncertainty here. The more physical kind: probability that life arises, intelligence evolves, etc etc.
And there's "our uncertainty" kind of probability - we don't know what it takes for the life to evolve - and this is common for all galaxies.