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Lblack comments on 2013 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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I remember my thought process going something like this:
P (Aliens in Milky way) ~0.75
P (Aliens) ~100
P (Answer pulled from anus on basis of half remembered internet facts is remotely correct) ~0,8
So:
P (Aliens) * P (Anus) ~0,8
P (Milky aliens) * P (Anus) ~0,6
<nitpick>It should have been P (Milky aliens) * P (Anus) + P (!Milky aliens) * P (!Anus) = 0.6 + 0.05.</nitpick>