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Yosarian2 comments on Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth? - Less Wrong
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Comments (57)
Economic growth itself is an exponential function. "The economy grows 3% every year" is exponential growth, not linear growth. I would say that it's only happened because of exponential technological progress; we never had that level of exponential growth until the industrial revolution. And I would say that most of the economic growth the first world has had over the past 20 years has come from recent technological advancement, mostly being the twin communication and computer revolutions we've had (PC's, cell phones, internet, smart phones, and some smaller examples of both).
I'm not sure how you got from my comments that I don't understand exponential growth. But let me remake the point more clearly. The doubling time of economic growth has remained stable at around 15 years. The doubling time of computational processing speed has remained roughly stable at around 24 months. I agree that economic growth in developed economies in the last 20 years has come largely from tech progress . But it has not had an effect on the rate of economic growth.
Long term global growth is achieved only through tech progress. We didn't have this rate of economic growth before the industrial revolution, that's true. It wasn't experienced during the agricultural phase. But foragers didn't enjoy the same growth rate as farmers. The rate of economic growth has not increased since well before the introduction of computers.