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VipulNaik comments on Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth? - Less Wrong
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Comments (57)
Won't the rate of economic growth be different (much larger) by definition? I can't envisage a scenario where economic growth could be roughly as it is now or slower but we have experienced anything even approaching a technological singularity. Think of the change in growth rates resulting from the farming and industrial revolutions.
Something to puzzle over is the fact we have seen computational grunt grow exponentially for decade upon decade yet economic growth has been stable over the same period.
Depends on the reason for the switch to a new paradigm. If the reason is that there are even more attractive options, then economic growth would accelerate. If the reasons are that we're running out of demand for improvement across the board, and people are more satisfied with their lives, and the technological low-hanging fruit are taken, then economic growth could be lower.
I see. The demand side story. I suppose it is technically feasible but I find it unlikely in the extreme. There is nothing in history to suggest it and I don't think it fits with psychology. History is full of examples of how we won't want for anything after we have 'some foreseen progress'. We've had the luxury of being able to trade in some economic growth for more leisure, and still be better off than our grandparents, for a long time now, but haven't.
Do you mean lower than it is now? After a paradigm shift in advancement?