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ColtInn comments on Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth? - Less Wrong
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Comments (57)
Yes, this is a plausible scenario. I personally put weight on this type of scenario, namely, that progress might stall and then resume once some complementary supply-side and demand-side innovations have been made and other economic progress has happened to support more investment in the area. I don't think this would be runaway technological progress. I might talk more about this sort of scenario in a future post.
No reason to think it won't be runaway technological progress, depending on how you define runaway. The industrial revolution was runaway technological progress. Going from an economic output doubling time of 1000 years to 15 years is certainly runway. The rate of growth ultimately stalled but it was certainly runaway for that transitional period, even though there were stalls along the way.
Edited to add link.
If you haven't already seen a version of this talk by Robin Hanson, the first 20 minutes or so goes into this but it's interesting throughout if you have time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ4Qx42WQHo
No reason? How about humans?
Um. Runaway progress does not stall by defintion -- think about what "runaway" means.
So we're talking about a human based runaway scenario? That's not gonna happen.
OK, that's what 'runaway' growth means. Can this even be predicted. I think not. How could you possibly ever know that you're in a runaway? The transition from agriculture to industry saw an increase in economic growth roughly 65 times faster. I think if we saw global output accelerate by even half that in the next 20 years most would be calling a runaway scenario.
We are talking about a runaway scenario in a human civilization, aren't we?
So what does it mean?
I don't think that's possible. Do you? A runaway means a massive and ongoing boost in productivity. That seems achievable only by AI, full brain emulations, or transhumans that are much smarter and faster at doing stuff than humans can be.
I was agreeing (mostly). My point was that by that definition we could never predict, or even know that we are in the middle of, a runway scenario. I did pose it as a question and you did not reply with an answer. So what do you think? If the doubling time in economic output decreased by 35 times over the next 2, or even 4 decades, would you think we are in a runaway scenario?
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Situation in quote 1 will not happen within the time frame in quote 2.
Generally speaking, I understand "runaway" as "unstoppable", meaning both that it won't stop on its own (stall) and that we lost control over it.
And, by the way, understanding that you lost control is how you know you're in a runaway scenario.
I did not mean to imply that situation in quote 1 would happen within the timeframe of quote 2, and I don't think i did. It's a thought experiment and I think that is clear.
There are examples of this in real history from smart people who thought we'd lost control - see Samuel Butler. We have, arguably. The extent to which machines are now integral to continued economic prosperity is irreversible without unbearable costs (people will die).
I am confused. What is a thought experiment?
My impression is that you are now evading questions and being deliberately provocative; but I'll play...
If the rate economic growth were to increase by x35, would you think you were in a runaway scenario?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_experiment