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Lumifer comments on Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth? - Less Wrong
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Comments (57)
As a general observation, you don't want to model growth (of any sort) as X% per year. You want to model it as a random variable with the mean of X% per year, maybe, and you want to spend some time thinking about its distribution. In particular, whether that distribution is symmetric and how far out do the tails go.