ColtInn comments on Supply, demand, and technological progress: how might the future unfold? Should we believe in runaway exponential growth? - Less Wrong

14 Post author: VipulNaik 11 April 2014 07:07PM

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Comment author: ColtInn 16 April 2014 04:44:00AM 1 point [-]

I did not mean to imply that situation in quote 1 would happen within the timeframe of quote 2, and I don't think i did. It's a thought experiment and I think that is clear.

And, by the way, understanding that you lost control is how you know you're in a runaway scenario.

There are examples of this in real history from smart people who thought we'd lost control - see Samuel Butler. We have, arguably. The extent to which machines are now integral to continued economic prosperity is irreversible without unbearable costs (people will die).

Comment author: Lumifer 16 April 2014 04:53:35AM 0 points [-]

It's a thought experiment and I think that is clear.

I am confused. What is a thought experiment?

Comment author: ColtInn 16 April 2014 05:07:39AM 1 point [-]

My impression is that you are now evading questions and being deliberately provocative; but I'll play...

If the rate economic growth were to increase by x35, would you think you were in a runaway scenario?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_experiment

Comment author: Lumifer 16 April 2014 02:42:20PM 0 points [-]

When I'm being deliberately provocative, it's... more noticeable :-D I also know what a thought experiment is.

What I was confused about is exactly which part of the whole discussion about exponential growth did you consider to be a thought experiment.

If the rate economic growth were to increase by x35, would you think you were in a runaway scenario?

If that were the only piece of information that I had, no, I would not think so. Insufficient data.