Sure. Absolutely.
The idea was not to estimate the posterior probability of falling in love.
The idea was the prior probabilities I do not have (much) control over.
Checking for a match in chemistry is relatively easy. There even used to be social protocols to that end (involving e.g. handkerchiefs). Nowadays I goes the simplest approach would be to go out jogging together.
Checking for a match in infatuation also seems to be doable. Infatuated people can be spotted easily and I think I can notice early when I am falling. Maybe even speed up that.
Note I know that I'm sounding totally unromantic here. To make this clear: I do not intend to run a checklist on a date. That wouldn't be a winning strategy either. It is more an analything getting a feel for the complexities involved. As I lack practical experience with dates I can use some spare time to resolve some statistical and 'decision theoretic' aspects that passibly couldn't even be learned by simply doing dates. Sure I will not get around those.
Consider this: How many dates would you guess are needed before you find an acceptable match? Obviously this depends on 'acceptable'. But I do have quite a lot control over the conscious 'acceptable' criteria. But much less so over the physical. What is the lower bound on the number of dates before you could e.g. expect a match in chemistry?
Knowing this could significantly alter my motivation to continue looking. If the number is higher than say 100 traditional dating would be out for example (at least for me as I'm not after sex for which a high match obviously isn't required).
Checking for a match in chemistry is relatively easy. There even used to be social protocols to that end (involving e.g. handkerchiefs). Nowadays I goes the simplest approach would be to go out jogging together.
I do have a large dataset of person experience in dancing where I probably danced with >1000 different women in the last years. While I haven't written down numbers I think the amount of data is large enough that the observations that come out of it aren't due to chance but "real" patterns.
I think the amount of physical intimacy that...
This is the earlier promised post about Dealing with a Major Personal Crisis. Please continue reading there but comment here.
The reasons for posting it this way are explained at the end of the link. I hope this approach does what I want it to.