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adamzerner comments on Why don't more rationalists start startups? - Less Wrong
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I'm not sure what you mean by inside-view. It seems like you're moving up the ladder of abstraction though, which isn't productive. If you disagree, please move down the ladder, and explain why.
And for the record, I am starting a startup now, have read a lot about them, but haven't had any actual experience before this past summer.
Inside view: "If I enumerate the things I think can make a startup fail and estimate probabilities, failure seems unlikely"
Outside view: "If I look at actual startups, empirically 90% of them fail, so failure is likely"
I would have downvoted the original post if it wasn't for this, as it explicitly says many times over things like "I don't know, but it seems reasonable that", "it shouldn't be difficult to", "I think that it's something that could be", etc. I hope that your startup turns out well, and that however it turns out, you will be able to write some updates about the real process.
BTW, "inside/outside view" refers to this.