Doing a successful startup is hard. Surpassing the default 90% lack-of-major-success rate for experienced startup founders, startup founders who are nephews of VCs, startup founders who impress even VCs, etcetera is hard. The best of our community have not yet demonstrated that they have surpassed this level. It could be that with sufficiently systematic training our community could achieve outsized returns by not just being specific but also acquiring sufficient skill levels of See Through Conventions and Avert Office Politics and Use Conditioning Correctly and Be Really Original and Cooperate With Cofounders and MurphyJutsu and Learn From Others Experience and Be Calibrated and so on. It's not the sort of thing where you can read LW and breeze through it. Your post was downvoted because it displayed a tremendous ignorance of the problem's magnitude, trying to hit a 16-pound nail with a 4-ounce hammer.
Your post was downvoted because it displayed a tremendous ignorance of the problem's magnitude, trying to hit a 16-pound nail with a 4-ounce hammer.
Sorry if it wasn't clear, but my intentions weren't really to make an argument, they were to open a discussion.
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My motivation behind this post stems from Aumann's agreement theorem. It seems that my opinions on startups differ from most of the rationality community, so I want to share my thoughts, and hear your thoughts, so we could reach a better conclusion.
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...I really mean for this article to be
My motivation behind this post stems from Aumann's agreement theorem. It seems that my opinions on startups differ from most of the rationality community, so I want to share my thoughts, and hear your thoughts, so we could reach a better conclusion.
I think that if you're smart and hard working, there's a pretty good chance that you achieve financial independence within a decade of the beginning of your journey to start a startup. And that's my conservative estimate.
"Achieve financial independence" only scratches the surface of the benefits of succeeding with a startup. If you're an altruist, you'll get to help a lot of other people too. And making millions of dollars will also allow you the leverage you need to make riskier investments with much higher expected values, allowing you to grow your money quickly so you could do more good.
A lot of this is predicated on my belief that you have a good chance at succeeding if you're smart and hardworking, so let me explain why I think this.
Along the lines of reductionism, "success with a startup" is an outcome (I guess we could define success as a $5-10M exit in under 10 years). And outcomes consist of their components. My argument consists of breaking the main outcome into it's components, and then arguing that the components are all likely enough for the main outcome to be likely.
I think that the 4 components are:
The Idea
Your idea has to be for a product or service (I'll just say product to keep things simple) that creates demand, and can be met profitably. In other words, make something people want (this article spells it out pretty well).
What could go wrong?