V_V comments on On saving the world - Less Wrong

101 Post author: So8res 30 January 2014 08:00PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 February 2014 03:54:53PM 8 points [-]

Would you agree that you are carrying out a Pascal's Muggle line of reasoning using a leverage prior?

http://lesswrong.com/lw/h8k/pascals_muggle_infinitesimal_priors_and_strong/

If so, you're using it very controversially, compared to disbelieving in a googolplex or Ackermann of leverage. A 10^-80 prior is easy for sensory evidence to overcome if your model implies that fewer than 10^-80 sentients hallucinate your sensory evidence; this happens every time you flip 266 coins. Conversely to state the 10^-80 prior is invincible just restates that you think more than 10^-80 sentients are having your experiences, due to Simulation Arguments or some explanation of the Fermi Paradox which involves lots of civilizations like ours within any given Hubble volume. In other words, to say that the 10^-80 prior is not beaten by our sensory experience merely restates that you believe in an alternate explanation for the Fermi Paradox in which our sensory experiences are not rare.

Comment author: V_V 02 February 2014 06:15:54PM -1 points [-]

What sensory experience are you talking about?