lukeprog comments on Tricky Bets and Truth-Tracking Fields - Less Wrong

14 Post author: lukeprog 29 January 2014 08:52AM

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Comment author: lukeprog 29 January 2014 07:51:40PM 1 point [-]

This just comes back to the question of how truth-tracking the two people think the given expert community is, and how they should set their bets based on those anticipations. If one is worried about temporally local perturbations (see e.g. this bet), one could also agree to randomly sample the expert population at 15 years, 20 years, and 25 years.