Will the final appeal find Amanda Knox and/or Raffaele Sollecito innocent or guilty?
I will predict "guilty" with a probability of 85-90% since the highest court apparently decided against Knox and Sollecito previously.
When will the trial end?
The trial is already over, no? All that's left is further appeals, right? Do the appeals courts take further evidence?
If convicted, will the US extradite Amanda Knox?
I predict "no" with a probability of 75-80%. The sentiment in the United States is pretty pro-Knox and there is always a good deal of reluctance to send attractive young women to jail. The United States obviously has the juice to politely tell Italy to f* off and it shouldn't be too hard to find some procedural excuse to deny the extradition request.
I agree with your final prediction but not with your reasoning. The United States will likely not allow Knox to be extradited, not due to a vague sense of reluctance or unquantifiable dislike of Italy, but because the US has explicit laws that not allow extraditions relating to double-jeopardy. Any country wanting to extradite someone due to a crime for which they have previously been found innocent will be ignored. So in fact, the US would actually have to find a procedural excuse to allow the extradition request.
Today an Italian court has declared that Amanda Knox is, once again, guilty. She did not attend that trial (is not required to in Italy), so her final verdict will be either by appeal to the Supreme Court of Italy or the US extradition court. Extradition requests might be impeded due to the fact US does not have double jeopardy.
Previously on LessWrong, in The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom there was some complaint that it actually took more than an hour on the internet to thoroughly research the case. Of course, the courts have been at this since 2007...
Her co-defendant, Raffaele Sollecito, who did show up at the trial, got sentenced to 25 years, but I don't know for sure where he is now because apparently he's totally unimportant and who cares (the media's opinion, not mine). I'm fairly sure he's in Italy though. So far it seems the plan is to revoke his passport but not arrest him.
Anyone want to take their hand at making predictions?