wedrifid comments on Amanda Knox Guilty Again - Less Wrong

7 Post author: christopherj 31 January 2014 04:12AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 01 February 2014 02:19:54AM 1 point [-]

Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence.

I've noticed that this kind of formulation of a prediction is defective for the purpose of calibration on things like predictionbook. If, instead the prediction was "Amanda Knox will be lose the appeals process AND Amanda Knox will be extradited", to complement your other question then the predictions continue to mean what predictionbook intends them to mean and if people answer both predictions then they have also provident the conditional prediction information.