Yes.
I was concerned about sample bias. However, I found this paper.
In Virginia, a cohort of 634 cases of sexual assault and/or homicide dating from 1973 to 1987 was discovered to have retained physical evidence. Since most state legislation that requires evidence storage was enacted in the post-DNA era...the Virginia cases provides a unique opportunity to determine how often DNA testing can be used to identify wrongful convictions. The results can be generalized (with caveats) because the physical evidence was retained for reasons unrelated to the case outcome, and the cases were assigned to the serologist who retained the evidence in a way that did not introduce bias.
They found DNA evidence that was "supportive of exoneration" (versus "inculpative" or "exonerative but insufficient") in 8% of sexual assault convictions (33 in 422) . However, many of the cases provided no determinate evidence, (which means something like too little DNA or no reference DNA). Among cases that provided determinate evidence, 15% (33 in 227) seemed supportive of exoneration.
They present quite a bit of other statistical analysis, but this isn't quite my skill set and I'll need to set aside time to go through it later. I didn't find any other data sources of similar quality, but I looked for <30min. There was a more recent project in Arizona that tried to apply DNA testing more broadly, but that was aimed at doing a cost/benefit for current testing.
Are those two sets of 33 the same 33? If so, then that deserves calling out, because at first reading (at least to me) it sounds like some of the 8% are only "supportive of exoneration" because of a lack of DNA evidence.
Today an Italian court has declared that Amanda Knox is, once again, guilty. She did not attend that trial (is not required to in Italy), so her final verdict will be either by appeal to the Supreme Court of Italy or the US extradition court. Extradition requests might be impeded due to the fact US does not have double jeopardy.
Previously on LessWrong, in The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom there was some complaint that it actually took more than an hour on the internet to thoroughly research the case. Of course, the courts have been at this since 2007...
Her co-defendant, Raffaele Sollecito, who did show up at the trial, got sentenced to 25 years, but I don't know for sure where he is now because apparently he's totally unimportant and who cares (the media's opinion, not mine). I'm fairly sure he's in Italy though. So far it seems the plan is to revoke his passport but not arrest him.
Anyone want to take their hand at making predictions?