khafra comments on How Much Evidence Does It Take? - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 September 2007 04:06AM

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Comment author: khafra 08 September 2011 07:59:53PM *  4 points [-]

He's talking about epistemology, not decision theory. Decision theory depends on a whole host of factors other than the probability of the desired outcome. I would buy a $1 lottery ticket if it were clear that it represented a 1/8,194,749 chance of winning $131,115,985. Epistemologically, however, I would be astonished if something happened besides me being $1 poorer.