AshwinV comments on How Much Evidence Does It Take? - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 24 September 2007 04:06AM

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Comment author: AshwinV 16 October 2014 04:18:57AM 0 points [-]

Let's say you've got 10 boxes lined up in a row, and you start punching combinations into the boxes. You cannot stop on the first combination that gets beeps from all 10 boxes, saying, "But the odds of that happening for a losing combination are a million to one! I'll just ignore those ivory-tower Bayesian rules and stop here." On average, 131 losing tickets will pass such a test for every winner

Huh?