private_messaging comments on A Fervent Defense of Frequentist Statistics - Less Wrong
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That's not a substitution, and it's the probability of seeing the data provided the hypothesis is false, not true.
It gives the upper bound on the risk that you're going to believe in a wrong thing if you follow the strategy of "do experiments, believe the hypothesis if confirmed".
Mostly we want to update all probabilities until they're very close to 0 or to 1 , because the uncertainty leads to loss of expected utility in the future decision making.
Yeah, and in Bayesianism, any number between 0 and 1 will do - there's still no such thing as a specific "probability of the hypothesis", merely a change to an arbitrary number.
edit: it's sort of like arguing that worst-case structural analysis of a building or a bridge is a "very very wrong approach", and contrast it with some approach where you make up priors about the quality of concrete, and end up shaving a very very small percent off the construction cost, while building a weaker bridge which bites you in the ass eventually anyway when something unexpected happens to the bridge.