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shminux comments on I like simplicity, but not THAT much - Less Wrong
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Suppose instead the same voice says "You do not live in a Tegmark IV multiverse". Wouldn't you still conclude that you do, anyway? It is still a "disorderly experience", isn't it?
Yup, sure.
If you are in a Tegmark IV multiverse you are exactly as likely to hear that you live in a Tegmark IV multiverse as to hear that you do NOT live in a Tegmark IV multiverse. It is still evidence that you do, though, because hearing that would be unlikely in some alternative multiverse forms (such as a Christian one), which would have a corresponding decrease in their probabilities. Hearing that you do not live in a Tegmark IV multiverse should also decrease probability that you live in a Tegmark IV multiverse, because you are more likely to be told that you don't in some other multiverses. So, the evidence provided by the statement probably still points in the expected direction, but it probably isn't as strong as it seems.
My original point was that the message content is barely relevant compared to the fact of the message happening, which also means that it is evidence for the MUH as much as for any other extra-physical model, such as God, simulation, hallucination or a prank. (I'd heavily bet on the last two.)
That's a good point, thank you for the elaboration.