= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Vladimir_Nesov comments on Rethinking Education - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (87)
You plan to earn enough money to pay hundreds of people? It's not possible to do with high probability, and you have to be good enough to have even the small chance. A normal career may give better expected outcome, even though it won't give that rather small chance of getting rich. (Read Graham's essays, for example these two.)
1) I don't necessarily have to make enough money to pay for the whole thing. Just enough to do enough to get other people interested enough to do the same.
2) I think I've got a solid chance at getting rich. This is my specific argument, and this is the general one.
This is not particularly convincing. You should take into account the a priori improbability of this event, so that getting to a "solid chance" would require much more than evidence that merely improves the estimate. See also base rate fallacy and attribute substitution (e.g. the question you need to answer is "What is the probability of success?", but the question you end up answering might be "How good is my startup's pitch?").