Comment on Rethinking Education

Sat, 15 Feb 2014 19:28:19 GMT

I think I've got a solid chance at getting rich. This is my specific argument, and this is the general one.

This is not particularly convincing. You should take into account the a priori improbability of this event, so that getting to a "solid chance" would require much more than evidence that merely improves the estimate. See also base rate fallacy and attribute substitution (e.g. the question you need to answer is "What is the probability of success?", but the question you end up answering might be "How good is my startup's pitch?").

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