9eB1 comments on Open Thread for February 18-24 2014 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: eggman 19 February 2014 12:57PM

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Comment author: 9eB1 20 February 2014 08:53:22PM *  2 points [-]

According to this it took 12 hours to execute a move that requires 8 rightward movements. If the "victory road" requires that they execute 13 moves correctly, and the time it takes grows exponentially with the number of steps (as a power of two), then it might be a reasonable ballpark to suggest it would take 12*2^(13-8) hours, which would be 16 days. Of course, this is an overestimate because assuming more than 50% of people are making the right move, it should grow as a power less than 2. Much less than 50 years I would expect, but then again I've never played Pokemon so could be missing some element here that changes the complexity.