jsteinhardt comments on Open Thread for February 18-24 2014 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: eggman 19 February 2014 12:57PM

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Comment author: Brillyant 19 February 2014 05:37:52PM 18 points [-]

I've lost 30 pounds since September 17th, 2013*. Interestingly, I've noticed doing so caused me to lose a lot of faith in LW.

In the midst of my diet, discussion in the comments on this series of posts confounded me. I'm no expert on nutrition or dieting(I do know perhaps more than the average person), but my sense is that I encountered a higher noise-to-signal ratio on the subject here at LW than anywhere else I've looked. There seemed to be all sorts of discussion about everything other than the simple math behind weight loss. Lots of super fascinating stuff—but much of it missing the point, I thought.

I learned a few interesting things during the discussion—which I always seem to do here. But in terms of providing a boost to my instrumental rationality, it didn't help at all. In fact, it's possible LW had a negative impact on my ability to win at dieting and weight management.

I notice this got me wondering about LW's views and discussions about many other things that I know very little about. I feel myself asking "How could I rationally believe LW knows what they are talking about in regard to the Singularity, UFAI, etc. if they seem to spin their wheels so badly on a discussion about something as simple as weight loss?"

I'm interested to hear others' thoughts on this.

Have you ever lost confidence in LW after a similar experience? Maybe something where it seemed to you people were "talking a big game" but failing to apply any of that to actually win in real life?

(*Note: To be clear, I've lost 30 pounds since Sept 17th, but only ~15-18 lbs since my "diet" began on Jan 1, 2014. I'm not really bragging about losing weight—I wish it weren't the case. I injured my neck and could no longer use my primary method of exercise (weightlifting) to stay in shape. After eating poorly and lying around for a couple months, I started—on Jan 1—to do consistent, light treadmill work & light core work, as well as cutting my calorie consumption pretty dramatically.)

Comment author: jsteinhardt 22 February 2014 09:41:58AM 5 points [-]

Have you ever lost confidence in LW after a similar experience? Maybe something where it seemed to you people were "talking a big game" but failing to apply any of that to actually win in real life?

As a stats / machine learning person, a lot of the "Bayesian statistics" talk around here is pretty cringe-inducing. My impresion is that physicists probably feel similarly about "many-worlds" discussions. I think LessWrong unfortunately causes people to believe that being a dilettante is enough to merit a confident opinion on a subject.

Comment author: drethelin 22 February 2014 04:52:36PM 1 point [-]

One of the most annoying things to me about Eliezer is how much is writing style is bombastic and hyperconfident and how it's encouraged here to talk like that despite the entire point of probabilistic reasoning being to NEVER be 100 percent certain of things.