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homunq comments on 9/26 is Petrov Day - Less Wrong

101 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 26 September 2007 04:14PM

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Comment author: homunq 14 November 2011 04:18:07PM 0 points [-]

It's hard to say that everyone got WTC collapse wrong. Obviously, the people who flew those airliners had some sort of expectation in their head about what would happen, and it may well have been relatively accurate.

Comment author: gwern 14 November 2011 04:48:06PM 3 points [-]

it may well have been relatively accurate.

Depends on what relatively accurate is. Bin Laden was off by about 2 or 3 orders of magnitude, depending on how you count floors and number of collapsed buildings: http://www.gwern.net/Terrorism%20is%20not%20Effective#fn4