Hitler was not magic. The economic, social and technological conditions that gave rise to the Third Reich would have caused a similar conflict regardless of who rose to power.

It would probably have caused a conflict, but I take issue with "similar". History has so many cusps, each potentially and unpredictably leading in several possible directions, with only one observed. What if Germany used graphite for fission, what if Germany decided to finish off Britain before engaging Russia, what if at least one of the Hitler assassination attempts were successful, etc. Same with almost any other time and place. In addition, the medium- and long-term consequences are also unpredictable, and what seems initially like a positive development could well turn out to be negative.

In your physical metaphor I'd compare it with freezing solid and staying solid, vs freezing, cracking and crumbling into pieces.